BARREL Daily Update Feb 1st 2014

Hi all, 

There was another couple of flares last night. They appear to potentially be more geo-effective than the first but we need to see more modeling to be sure about this. NOAA has upped the possibility of an X-class flare from 10%  to 15%. All of these occurred from sunspot 1967 and it's still growing in complexity! Yay! Even more good news is that it appears that a Sunspot off the Easter limb (not yet in view of the Earth) is also flaring with large M class flares. Hopefully this will also continue as it moves into view and begins to become geo-effective throughout the next week or two (depending on how far back around the Sun it is). Currently Enlil is predicting that the Jan 30 CME will hit us on the morning of Feb. 2nd. It doesn't appear to have updated yet to include the two latest solar events. 

I think our not looking at the Sun worked, lets not watch it for the rest of the weekend and hopefully next week will be even more exciting! 

SANAE is hoping to have a launch today, but the winds are still expected to be strong at Halley. The winds should die down at Halley as the day continues so we're hoping that they'll be able to launch on Sunday. 

Ground Weather:
SANAE IV: 
Temp.: -10. C
Wind speed: 5 knots

Halley 6: 
Temp.: ? C
Wind speed: ? knots 

Payloads up: 
SANAE IV: 2A, 2B, 2E
Halley 6:  2L, 2O, 2P

Payloads coming down:

Collection times for EFW:  

2014-01-28

A: 19:30 - 23:59

2014:01-29

B: 17:20 - 22:30

2014-01-30

A: 13:40 - 20:40

2014-01-31

A: 16:40 - 23:40 

B: 12:30 - 19:30

2014-02-02

A: 13:30 - 20:20

2014-02-03

B: 12:45 - 19:45

2014-02-05

A:13:15 - 18:59

A: 19:10 - 20:30

Halley Bay Search Coil Magnetometer :

very quiet, but perhaps a very small very faint very narrowed band EMIC wave at about 06:00 UT. 

GOES Electron Flux:

The electron levels have stayed at moderate levels.

GOES Proton Flux:

The proton levels are at moderate levels. 

Space Weather from Spaceweather.com and SWPC.noaa.gov 

Solar wind speed: 335.6 km/s 

Solar proton density: 3.2 cm^(-3)  

Sun spot number: 87

NOAA has the likelihood of a M class flare at 60% and a 15% chance of an X class flare.  

There are currently no coronal holes observed on the Earthward side of the Sun. 

Kp is quiet 

kp =1 with a 24 max of kp = 1

Bz = 0.7 north

Btotal = 2.9 nT  

From Kyoto:

AE: some small activity

Dst: very quiet.

Make sure to back up your computer!