BARREL Daily Update Feb 3rd 2014

Hi all, 

2L was cutdown last night. It had already been a bit low but started dropping suddenly and unexpectedly. 

The CME which was expected to hit on Feb. 2nd may or may not have arrived yet. There was definitely a bit of an increase and some compressions late last night. However some sources are saying that it won't be here until Feb. 4th now. 

That CME came/is coming from sunspot 1967 which NOAA is now giving a 50% chance of producing a X-class flare and a 80% chance of producing a M-class flare. It is now geo-effective, so lets hope for the X-flare and a huge CME to follow. We've had lots and lots of M-class flares over the last 24-48 hours. Hopefully this is a good sign that we'll have some geomagnetic activity soon. 

Ground Weather:
SANAE IV: 
Temp.: -10. C
Wind speed: 13 knots

Halley 6: 
Temp.: -15.7 C
Wind speed: 12 knots 

Payloads up: 
SANAE IV: 2A, 2B, 2E, 2F
Halley 6:  2O, 2P, 2Q

Payloads coming down:
2L

Collection times for EFW:  

2014-01-28

A: 19:30 - 23:59

2014:01-29

B: 17:20 - 22:30

2014-01-30

A: 13:40 - 20:40

2014-01-31

A: 16:40 - 23:40 

B: 12:30 - 19:30

2014-02-02

A: 13:30 - 20:20

2014-02-03

B: 12:45 - 19:45

2014-02-05

A:13:15 - 18:59

A: 19:10 - 20:30

Halley Bay Search Coil Magnetometer :

some nice EMIC wave activity with the late arrival of the CME. 

GOES Electron Flux:

The electron levels have stayed at moderate levels, but thee were some dropouts/structure. 

GOES Proton Flux:

The proton levels are at moderate levels but there were some dropouts from the start of the SI

Space Weather from Spaceweather.com and SWPC.noaa.gov 

Solar wind speed: 365.6 km/s 

Solar proton density: 4.2 cm^(-3)  

Sun spot number: 163

NOAA has the likelihood of a M class flare at 80% and a 50% chance of an X class flare.  

There are currently no large coronal holes observed on the Earthward side of the Sun, but one is starting to peak around. 

Kp is quiet 

kp =2 with a 24 max of kp = 2

Bz = 3.1 north

Btotal = 6.4 nT  

From Kyoto:

AE: quiet

Dst: quiet.