BARREL Daily Update: Jan 2nd

Hi All, 

Last night was a bit exciting on the Sun. We had the biggest Flare of the year, and not just because it was Jan. 1st. There was a very large M Class flare (9.9) which is right below the X class, or very large flare. This flare also appears to be Earthward directed. We also seem to be starting to observed the HSS from the coronal hole. This is expected to continue through the 4th, so we could potentially get a large storm... if Bz turns negative... It also looks like there might be another large active sunspot region starting to come around the earthward facing side of the Sun. Hopefully it will hold off erupting until it become geo-effective. 

Robyn stated yesterday during the telecom and in her note last night that they are not expecting to launch today, but hope to have an opportunity tomorrow. 

On another side note, the ship that was stuck in the ice in Antarctica has now been rescued. There are some cool photos and videos of the rescue online. The NY Times has an article about it. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/03/world/antarctica-ship.html?_r=0

Ground Weather:
SANAE IV: 
Temp.: -7 C
Wind speed: 27. knots 

Halley 6: 
Temp.: -4.4 C
Wind speed: 15 knots 

Payloads up: 

SANAE IV: 2W

Halley 6:  2T, 2I

Payloads coming down:

none

Collection times for EFW: 

2013-12-30 (nice pass b/t stations)
A: 15:45 - 18:45  (mlts from 14 - 16.4)
B: 14:00 - 18:00 (mlts from 12 - 16)

2013-12-31 (nice pass just to West of stations)

A: 16:00 - 18:00 (mlts from 12 - 13.5)
     19:45 - 21:45 (mlts from 14.5 - 16)
B: 17:15 - 19:30 (mlts from 12-14)
     20:00 - 22:30 (mlts from 14-16)

2014-01-01 (pass quite a ways to the West of stations)
A: 19:15 - 20:45 (mlts from 12 - 13)

     23:00 - 2014-01-02/00:30 (mlts from 14.5 - 16)

B: 20:00 - 21:30 (mlts from 11 - 13)

2014-01-02 (pass quite a ways to the West of stations)
B: 00:30 - 02:00 (mlts from 15 - 14.9)

2013-01-02

A: 17:15-18:45 (MLTs 15-17)       Partial pass b/t stations

B: 14:00-15:30 (MLTs 11.6-13) Pass b/t stations

B: 17:40-19:40 (MLTs (14.5-16) Pass just west of stations

2013-01-03

A: 16:00-17:30 (MLTs 11.5-13) Pass to West of stations

A: 19:10-21:40 (MLTs 14-16.5)

B: 17:10-18:40 (MLTs 11.5-13)

B: 21:15-22:45 (MLTs 14.5-16)

2013-01-04 to 2013-01-05   Far to West pass

A: 18:50-20:20 (MLTs 11.3-12.8)

A: 22:50-00:20(jan5)   (MLTs 15-16)

B: 20:15-21:40 (MLTs 11.5-13)

2013-01-05      

A: 16:20-18:20 (MLTs 14.5-16.2)   pass b/t stations

B: 00:40(jan5) - 2:00(jan5)   (MLTs 15-16.3)

B: 14:20-16:20 (MLTs 11.6-13.4)   pass b/t and West of stations

B: 18:00-20:00 (MLTs 14.3-16.3)

Halley Bay :

Some strong broadband activity this morning.  

GOES Electron Flux:

An increase in both of the GOES channels of electron flux, a day ahead of the NOAA prediction.  

GOES Proton Flux:

The proton flux has returned to normal and is expected to stay normal over the next three days. 

Space Weather from Spaceweather.com and SWPC.noaa.gov 

Solar wind speed: 555.6 km/s 

Solar proton density: 3.9 cm^(-3)  

Sun spot number: 106 

NOAA has the likelihood of a M class flare at 70% and a 30% chance of an X class flare.  

Kp is quiet 

kp = 3 with a 24 max of kp = 4

Bz = 2.2 nT north

Btotal = 6.4 nT  

It looks like we are starting to see some HSS from the coronal hole which is expected to continue through January 4th. 

From Kyoto:

AE: It looks like there has been some smaller substorm activity. 

Dst: Quiet at the moment but if Bz turns negative, we could have a large storm.