Hi All,
Yesterday was very very exciting. I don't think I can adequately state just how exciting it was! We saw more flares (3 M class or higher flares with CMEs), our first true large X-class flare and all of them were Earth directed. There was another SEP event associated with it. We saw the CME from the Jan 4th event and with it some substorms. We also saw our first REP events, and there were a lot of them! There may have been some microbursts as a few of the events in the FSPC-1 channel looked a bit fuzzy but really not sure about that (we need higher resolution data to double check). The electrons in the radiation belts seem to have disappeared from GOES. Oh and that X-class flare, it's traveling so quickly that it's expected to be here some time tomorrow.... and that sunspot is still crackling. There is another large sunspot next to this active one which is also large and growing in complexity but hasn't erupted yet, and there is a coronal hole which is slowly moving into a geo-effective position and should reach Earth around the 12th.
We currently have four payloads likely on closed field lines and 2 on open ones; all are seeing activity. I've attached a new plot, it has the stratospheric winds with the location of our payloads over plotted. The one has the payload locations at about the time I got the winds plot and the other is the same thing with the entire path of the payloads plotted on top. It looks like a few are spiraling in, but for the most part they are staying on these constant circles that the winds seem to be following.
With this latest SEP event all payloads except for 2X observed it. 2X is at an L-value < 5 while the others are all at higher L. 2W which saw the SEP onset later than the others was in the dawn sector but at a similar L-value to some of the other payloads, not sure why it saw it later. Interesting event.
Ground Weather:
SANAE IV:
Temp.: -7. C
Wind speed: 21 knots
Halley 6:
Temp.: -1.1 C
Wind speed: 6 knots
Payloads up: Possible launch today from either site
SANAE IV: 2W, 2X
Halley 6: 2T, 2I, 2K, 2L
Payloads coming down:
Payloads coming down:
none
Collection times for EFW:
2014-01-02 (pass quite a ways to the West of stations)
B: 00:30 - 02:00 (mlts from 15 - 14.9)
B: 00:30 - 02:00 (mlts from 15 - 14.9)
2013-01-02
A: 17:15-18:45 (MLTs 15-17) Partial pass b/t stations
B: 14:00-15:30 (MLTs 11.6-13) Pass b/t stations
B: 17:40-19:40 (MLTs (14.5-16) Pass just west of stations
2013-01-03
A: 16:00-17:30 (MLTs 11.5-13) Pass to West of stations
A: 19:10-21:40 (MLTs 14-16.5)
B: 17:10-18:40 (MLTs 11.5-13)
B: 21:15-22:45 (MLTs 14.5-16)
2013-01-04 to 2013-01-05 Far to West pass
A: 18:50-20:20 (MLTs 11.3-12.8)
A: 22:50-00:20(jan5) (MLTs 15-16)
B: 20:15-21:40 (MLTs 11.5-13)
2013-01-05
A: 16:20-18:20 (MLTs 14.5-16.2) pass b/t stations
B: 14:20-16:20 (MLTs 11.6-13.4) pass b/t and West of stations
18:00-20:00 (MLTs 14.3-16.3)
2013-01-06 (A just to West, B quite a ways to West)
A: 15:40-21:30 (6h 10m)
B: 17:30-19:30 (2h)
20:30-23:00 (2h 30m)
2013-01-07 (A quite west, B very west of stations)
A: 19:00-21:00 (2h)
22:30-23:59 (1h 30m)
B: 20:45-21:45 (1h)
00:45Jan8-02:00Jan8 (2h 15m)
TO BE CANCELLED:
2013-01-08 (A passes b/t stations, B just to West)
A: 17:30-18:30 (1h)
B: 14:30-16:30 (2h) Over Halley station
18:00-20:00 (2h)
Halley Bay Search Coil Magnetometer :
very quiet. a bit of a burst of broad band data.
GOES Electron Flux:
GOES Proton Flux:
Space Weather from Spaceweather.com and SWPC
Solar wind speed: 274.7 km/s
Solar proton density: 1.7 cm^(-3)
Sun spot number: 196
NOAA has the likelihood of a M class flare at 80% and a 50% chance of an X class flare.
Kp is quiet
kp = 1 with a 24 max of kp = 3
Bz = 1.1 north
Btotal = 3.5 nT
There is a coronal hole starting to come around. It should hit earth at around 12 - 13 of January. It is a bit farther North than than the previous one, but it seems to have a bit of a hook that is more Equatorward.
From Kyoto:
AE: some activity, a couple of substorms yesterday afternoon.
Dst: quiet.
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